Two papers by Professor Manabu Asai of Faculty of Economics have been published in international journals

Two papers by Professor Manabu Asai (Note 1) (Note 2) of Faculty of Economics have been published in international academic journals.

Among them, a joint study with Distinguished Professor Cathy W. S. Chen of Feng Chia University in Taiwan (Note 1) models the impact of geopolitical "news" on the risk of financial assets. This study improves the accuracy of predicting "tail risks" (extreme market fluctuations) such as oil price surges and Bitcoin crashes by statistically incorporating "news words" that reflect global tensions.

In publishing the article, Professor Asai said:
"The current market reacts sensitively to news and people's psychology, especially crude oil and cryptocurrencies, which can fluctuate greatly only in the 'unsettling atmosphere' before a specific incident occurs. As we continue to make efforts to capture uncertain risks through the power of science, we sincerely pray for an immediate ceasefire and a peaceful solution in all conflict zones."

(Note 1) A co-authored paper, "Bayesian Tail Risk Forecasting with Geopolitical Narratives and Range-Based Volatility," was published in the academic journal Computational Economics.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10614-025-11253-z

(Note 2) A sole-authored paper entitled "Maximum likelihood estimation for singular Wishart distributions" was published in the academic journal Statistics & Probability Letters.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016771522500224X​

Faculty Information

Professor

Manabu Asai

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Specialized Field

Financial Risk Management

Research theme

Financial asset risk modeling and prediction